> The market for mobile Windows 8 is embryonic, and will remain so for longer than is relevant to a Nokia turnaround
This is the key problem. Even if Windows 8 is a wild success on phones we're probably talking 15% market share over the next 12 - 24 months. And that will be split between multiple OEMs. Nokia in its current form is just not sustainable long term on 5% market share, or even 10%. What they need to happen is so unlikely (say 30% market share of Windows 8 phones in 12 months) that it's truly insanity to bank the future of your company on it.
This is the key problem. Even if Windows 8 is a wild success on phones we're probably talking 15% market share over the next 12 - 24 months. And that will be split between multiple OEMs. Nokia in its current form is just not sustainable long term on 5% market share, or even 10%. What they need to happen is so unlikely (say 30% market share of Windows 8 phones in 12 months) that it's truly insanity to bank the future of your company on it.