I, for one, hope this leads to a wholesale (no pun intended) reevaluation of our financial attitudes. There is plenty of blame to go around, and while a lot of it lands on predatory lenders and greedy speculation, consumers are largely responsible as well.
It's the end of a decadent age that was never good to begin with. That's the biggest shame, really. This whole mess was driven by consumer desire for shiny objects that just aren't that nice. They wanted shoddily-built mansions, as long as they were large enough to look impressive. They wanted unsafe and barely luxurious vehicles, as long as they are big and intimidating!
But, back on topic, I sure hope that the business world still sees a big need to spend on things like web applications and custom software. Otherwise, if business focuses on scaling back and being frugal, IT is in big trouble.
if business focuses on scaling back and being frugal, IT is in big trouble.
OTOH, this could be a fantastic for the right people in IT. Imagine, converting from SAP to an open source or SAAS alternative could save you $8 million per year. An entire industry could be built around this. Miss this while your competitors do it and you could be in for a world of hurt.
Nobody is immune; EVERYONE should have major back-up contingencies and savings that can be easily liquidated. Spread it internationally too, because having all of your money in one nation's markets or bank system is crazy at this point...
Now I'm not disagreeing with their opinion... I'm actually bearish for this year. But I drew my own conclusion based off my own research, not based off anyone else.
Quotes like these from "analysts" come out about 3 times a day. Generally it's just noise and nothing to trade on. It does create transaction fees for the brokers, though.
Evidence: go find quotes from Abby Cohen (permabull) and Meredith Whitney (permabear) for the past 3 weeks. They go talk smack on CNBC/bloomberg every so often and it makes headlines.
It's not remotely the same thing. Goldman Sachs and Lehman were protecting their bottom line. RBS is making this announcement as a public service - They have nothing to gain from this at all.
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.
The guy is an investment banker. He is placing directional exposure to the downside of the market. He has plenty to gain from it (as do I).
Reports by analysts are by no means a public service.
And your original question ("What should normal people do"): you can reduce your market exposure by reducing your directional bias (delta) against your market weighted (beta) portfolio. So buy puts, sell calls, sell OTM credit spreads, buy {SDS, QID, GLD, DUG, DXD} or something like that.
It's the end of a decadent age that was never good to begin with. That's the biggest shame, really. This whole mess was driven by consumer desire for shiny objects that just aren't that nice. They wanted shoddily-built mansions, as long as they were large enough to look impressive. They wanted unsafe and barely luxurious vehicles, as long as they are big and intimidating!
But, back on topic, I sure hope that the business world still sees a big need to spend on things like web applications and custom software. Otherwise, if business focuses on scaling back and being frugal, IT is in big trouble.