I think we are pretty far from truly replacing truck drivers. There will be a long period where the truck driver is in the car but not really driving, maybe even a very long time depending on if it is enshrined in law.
Even if the truck did drive itself, would it also load/unload and deal with flat tires and other vehicle damage conditions? I don't think these problems are insurmountable but I do think they will further extend the life of the truck driver profession.
I mean trains and subways don't even drive themselves right now somehow, so I think truck drivers will be fine.
I think the first step will be replacing long-haul truck drivers with autonomous trucks, they'll start at a depo near a freeway and end at a depo at the other end, then a human will drive to make the local delivery. Freeways are (relatively) easier to navigate than local streets.
That takes a 30 hour long haul job and turns it into a 30 minute job -- a single driver can do 10 of those a day.
Autonomous trucks will handle flats and other roadside breakdowns the same way many human drivers do -- pull over and wait for the repair service to come.
There's less incentive to replace train/subway drivers due to the high driver to passenger/cargo ratio (plus union rules get in the way) -- 1 truck driver to 40 tons of cargo versus 1 train engineer to 10,000 tons of cargo
>Autonomous trucks will handle flats and other roadside breakdowns the same way many human drivers do -- pull over and wait for the repair service to come.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but you clearly have no idea how the trucking industry works.
There are dozens of fully-automated train lines, some with attendants but many with absolutely zero personnel onboard, and the number is expected to quadruple within 10 years.
Even if the truck did drive itself, would it also load/unload and deal with flat tires and other vehicle damage conditions? I don't think these problems are insurmountable but I do think they will further extend the life of the truck driver profession.
I mean trains and subways don't even drive themselves right now somehow, so I think truck drivers will be fine.