Even on an upgradable machine. We're looking at ~$400 for 32GB of DDR5, and the price is only going to keep going up. We're at a point now where Apple actually charges less for RAM upgrades than it costs to upgrade your own machine. Insane.
How should readers assess the credibility of these claims that 12k, 36k, or 100k have been killed? I'm not there. I haven't seen anything with my own eyes. Should I expect that if the death toll reaches X, then Y form of evidence would make it out?
Personally, I believe the concern and outrage is warranted even if the death toll is indeed only (!) the 3,000 claimed by Iranian state media. That is the most conservative number so far and it is still an almost unimaginable number in such a short period of time.
It's not unimaginable at all. There are over 1200 cities in Iran, 400+ which saw active protests. If say, 'just' 50 were killed in each on average, that very quickly adds up to the tens of thousands. And looking at the footage coming out and the widespread news of overflowing morgues throughout the country, it's not unbelievable at all.
When people imagine mass casualty events, they imagine something like Verdun or Hiroshima, where tens of thousands are killed within a relatively concentrated geographic radius. But more often than not, they actually occur across a wider area in numerous but smaller casualty increments which add up to something much bigger. And when considering how deadly even a single well-positioned gunman with an automatic rifle can be against a crowd of unarmed and tightly packed civilians, it's really not surprising to see how easily casualties could have mounted, especially when you multiple that over 400+ cities.
Credible reporting puts the number somewhere between 30-40k among the intelligence community - comments and discussions have happened in public, and various officials around the world have repeated that range several times over the last week or so.
The information and sources are there for you to search, and it's up to you to determine who you find credible and why.
> Credible reporting puts the number somewhere between 30-40k among the intelligence community
The same intelligence community bragging that they're embedded among the protestors and engaging in covert-action (oxymoronic as it sounds) to bring about regime change?
That said it's been pointed out to me that my link is statements by anonymous government officials, which is not the same thing as "official Iranian government numbers".
Gazan health authorities were releasing the names of their dead, and this was met with great skepticism and qualification in Israel and the West (until this week when Israel just accepted at least tens of thousands died).
Random, inflated numbers from anonymous sources pop up on Iran and they're instantly quoted as fact.
Also - some of the rebels have guns and have been using them, so some of these dead are from shootouts.
I think, as sad as it sounds, the exact number doesn’t really matter.
We know: We know: a government whose sole purpose is to protect its people has committed the mass murder of unarmed civilians. has committed the mass murder of unarmed civilians.
That’s all there is to know to make a judgement about what has happened.
If you want to have a philosophical discussion about whether that is really the "sole purpose of government", then I suppose we could have one, though frankly my interest in that isn't all that high.
That's a long way from asserting that it is, in fact, the sole purpose of government, which was what I objected to.
I find the numbers to be surreal. The Gaza war is estimated to have around 100.000 dead (if you also count those who were buried under collapsed buildings or died of indirect causes). That was after two years of bombardment.
The Gaza war is a war with the side with the superior army trying to avoid killing. In Iran's war on it's own people, the superior army is trying to kill "as a punishment" (their words).
The same is true for the Russia-Ukraine war, btw. There have been 1300 victims per day for over 3 years. Russia is not trying to minimize casualties.
Why is it surprising that it results in an extreme difference in death toll? Or at least, in the rate of killing.
Yes, but 1300 victims per day, which is absolutely horrible, but still less than 6000 - 50.000 victims per day.
Or as another point of comparison (according to Wikipedia) : The bombing of Dresden went over three days and cost 25.000 lives. The bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki actually resulted in 100.000 immediate deaths.
All those locations - the Donbas, Gaza, Dresden, Hiroshima and Nagasaki were complete wastelands afterwards.
This makes it hard to believe for me. That being said, 3000 would still be absolutely gruesome.
I think in Russia's case it's a matter of practicality. It's not like every day they have an average number of dead and there certainly have been days with far more than 1000 victims per day, they have at least reached 5000 in a single day. I bet fighting around Kyiv got the rate much higher 3 years back too. Ukraine and Russia are not fighting in dense cities like Teheran, but in small rural villages mostly, and a lot of the time in fields, in treelines. Tough to kill many people there.
Iranian Islamic guard was slaughtering people in dense crowds in the middle of skyscrapers. That certainly makes those numbers realistic to me.
I don't know but the videos coming out are horrific. I don't understand how the Gaza crowd is supporting the Iranian regime/trying to bury this after they just fought so hard to get the Gazan's suffering seen/heard.
I stopped collecting specific examples because it does no good (people asking your question previously weren't really asking in good faith) but jumping back to the last time I was:
SyrianGirl and others in the same space on X (way way more that's just the first off the top of my head). Lots in comments on BlueSky labeling it all a zionist plot. Lots in comments Reddit labeling it all a zionist plot.
I think those spread Russian propaganda. I can see why the Russian dictatorship would want people rising up against dictators shot but it's not representative of general support for palestinians.
She was highly retweeted during the biggest Gaza discussion days. But no true Scotsman I guess. That's just one example off the top of my head. Again I'm not chasing down all the social media. Go read comments under the released videos coming out of Iran. Go read the comments under anti-regime Iranians pleas. Go google the Palestinian protests for people holding up signs supporting Iran, like the example I gave.
I feel I gave plenty of examples, from actual support at actual protests up to a major western newspaper talking about how people react, to specific people doing exactly what I said here. If that isn't enough you are intentionally being blind to it.
Taken from my above links:
sporkxrocket 26 days ago | parent | context | on: Iran Protest Map
I understand the Middle East and know that Iran is our ally in the fight against Zionism. I also understand that these "protests" are inorganic and have failed in their attempt to inflict damage on Iran."
Direct comments on this site saying this is all just Israel and illegitimate is somehow 'not supportive'? Saying they support the Iranian regime. In what world are those comments not supporting the Iranian regime like I claimed?
I changed the search to Google since you couldn't.
First search I did pulled up this recent Palestinian march with support for the Iranian regime. I guess that's also not being supportive of the Iranian regime in your mind?
I refer back to my 'people asking for this here don't seem to be in good faith'. I'm assuming you are just a troll at this point and I'm moving on.
You honestly cannot know and anyone who claims you can should be suspected. It's probably between what the government claims (which will tend to be lower) and what people estimate. Some groups are only logging confirmed deaths are around 12k+ probably increasing by the day.
But if it's 5-10-20 or even more k, how much difference does it make? The crime of mass killing and collective punishment is still as gruesome either way
Iranian official figures[1] put the final death toll at ~3111 for the entire duration of the protests (about a month). They have supposedly published names and identification numbers for about ~2900. So that gives a baseline at least.
Figures thrown around like 12k/20k/30k in 2 days - frankly beggar belief. Compare it to the recent (and ongoing) massacre of Gaza. which at its peak we were talking 1000-2000 deaths per day. The Israelis were dropping 2000-pound bombs and shelling non-stop until the entire strip into rubble. Reaching similar numbers against armed protestors without resorting to heavy weapons doesn't seem plausible. On top of it, 100s of thousands of injured (claimed along with the deaths). Again in 2 days. Even in a country of 90 million, can you imagine the utter pandemonium in every hospital. Mass graves. The blood and bodies at the squares. It would be visible from space. It would impossible to conceal. You have to go to Babi Yar in WW2 to get similar figures.
Beyond that its hard for me to tell. I dont trust any of this, given the interests and parties involved and the sources pushing these narratives . The legacy media is in full-blown propaganda offensive. The accounts and claims seem to come from a constellation of anti-regime NGOs, activists, Israeli lobbyists, neocons and intelligence agencies. Statements and actions of western and Israeli leaders make it abundantly clear this is an armed regime-change operation backed by numerous US, Israeli and western-backed proxy groups. US carrier strike groups have finally arrived in Gulf of Oman and suddenly the news stories pick up again. A month ago the same CSG was off the coast of Venezuela while the nobel prize was being awarded to an opponent of the Venezuelan government. Now that same nobel-laureate is meeting up with Reza Pahlavi and opponents of the Iranian government while Trump is sabre-rattling again. It all feels like deja-vu all over again. Netanyahu and the Israelis really want their Iran war and they need the Americans to carry it home for them.
The author said he saw Tesla prove that EVs were profitable, but it was profitable when taxpayers gave it $7,500 per vehicle sold... That's the whole profit margin on higher-end cars, and more profit than most mass-market makers get. EVs were never profitable.
Tesla don’t only sell in the US - when you say “per vehicle sold” - are you saying that the American taxpayers were subsidising the global sales? Or are you saying they were not profitable only in America?
If you want to deduct tax rebates, then what about the other side?
- New cars are subject to sales tax
- In some states (e.g., California), there are additional fees buried in DMV registration costs. California's Vehicle License Fee (VLF) is based on the depreciated value of the car. So newer and more expensive cars pay more to use the roads than do older cars. So the VLF is effectively another tax on new cars.
Even when excluding regulatory credits and consumer tax incentives, Tesla’s automotive business remains profitable.
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS): As of late 2024 and early 2025, Tesla’s average cost to produce a vehicle dropped to an all-time low of under $35,000.
Gross Margin: Tesla’s automotive gross margin (excluding regulatory credits) has typically hovered between 15% and 18% recently. This means they earn several thousand dollars more per car than it costs them to build.
If I understand correctly, you're saying that in a majority of cases (or something approaching that) the targets of these raids are not subject to lawful deportation?
I would be curious to have data / information showing that.
I'm saying we have absolutely no concrete statistical data, and in the press we have many cases where law enforcement has been deliberately negligent in order to deport people who were here legally. We can actually see them deliberately trying to avoid doing the things you would do if you wanted to establish the people you were trying to deport were here illegally. So it's fair to say, until we have some evidence that these people were here illegally the sensible thing to do is to assume they are innocent.
It's also kind of a problem to say "Oh well, we've got no concrete data, let's continue to let them deport whoever they like and shoot anyone who gets in the way".
I'm open to either conclusion, but what law / right do you think is being violated?
As a general rule, the first amendment protects the right to say, e.g. "John Doe lives at 123 Main St." John may not like that people know that, but that doesn't generally limit other peoples' right to speak freely.
It's right there in the article, there are specific federal laws authorizing them to make specific information available - for example, they can make any record kept about the identity or location of aliens available. Right, that's a specific limitation on what they can share, even the HHS spokesperson made clear they don't share information on US citizens and permanent lawful residents. But then the article goes on to reveal that ICE has all the personal data of every person receiving Medicaid.
If the law says you can share aliens information, but not Americans information, and then you do share Americans information I think you're probably breaking the law, and at the very least there should be a process to find out what the basis is for you doing it. Normally these things would be decided by a court.
I would disagree about capitalism being on the rise. Marx and his views grew after the 1850s and communist / socialist revolutions spread throughout Europe. There may have been more discussion of "capitalism" and an increase in industrialization, but "capital" had existed and operated for centuries before that. What changed was who owned the capital and how it was managed, specifically there has been a vast increase in central / government control.
I think this centralization of authority over capital is what has allowed for the power of lobbying, etc. A billionaire could previously only control his farms, tenant farmers, etc. Now their reach is international, and they can influence the taxing / spending the occurs across the entire economy.
Similarly, local communities were probably equally (likely far more) mislead by propaganda / lies. However, that influence tended to be more local and aligned with their own interests. The town paper may be full of lies, but the company that owned the town and the workers that lived there both wanted the town to succeed.
He predicted capitalisms fall, (which happened in the 1930s) but didn't predict that instead of the workers uniting and rising against the bourgeoisie that the bourgeoisie would just rebuild it and continue oppressing the masses
Capital continued to function just fine through the 1930s. Crops still grew on land. Dams produced electricity. Factories produced cars. What exactly failed?
Capitalism is subject to periodic crises; the Great Depression of the 30s beginning with the stock market crash of 1929 was the largest of those at the time it happened.
> Now, people play poker, and cheat, and they want the government to police their poker games and make sure they're fair.
No, if you personally run a poker game in your house and cheat your friends the government doesn’t care. The FBI isn’t going to be interested.
If you join the mafia and run an organized crime ring that operates poker games as a business which systematically defrauds people for large amounts of money and funnels the proceeds to organized crime through money laundering operations, the FBI will be interested.
If you look at this story and only see “some people cheated at a poker game” you’re missing the real story. This was a full on organized crime business operation
It's not even lunch yet and "the mafia should be allowed to build onto their tower of crimes in peace" is a take that I don't think that will be beat today.
The poker games were run by the mafia, who pulled in a lot of cash by luring and cheating suckers. I want the FBI to stop scams that funnel money to criminal organizations.
A lot of cash? It says “at least $7m” over 6 years across supposedly 4 crime families and how many people? They’d have been better off opening up a Jimmy John’s franchise.
If you run a Jimmy John’s, most of your customers will pay with credit cards. Everything runs through banks. You can’t launder that easily. It’s all traceable. It’s all taxable.
Run a poker operation and you can get your marks to give you crypto, cash, or small transfers.
$7 million in pure cash and crypto proceeds from a poker game is a lot more valuable than $7 million in revenue from a sandwich shop for an organized crime operation.
We’re supposedly talking about 4 major crime families, it wouldn’t be one McDonalds it would be dozens and dozens. And all legal.
Nothing about this story makes sense other other than as yet another headline to try to get people talking about something other than Epstein.
Did illegal gambling take place? I’m sure. Were 4 different crime families investing significant resources to take home barely $1m/year? I’m extremely skeptical and given this is coming from Kash “I always look like I just did a line of coke” Patel, I’d say it’s more likely than not we’re getting incomplete, if not bad information
I’m expecting some pardons will shape the expectation that this all could have been avoided with strategic political donations. In this era, what would you accept as a substitution for accountability?
That's not the part that's bad. I don't care whether they cheat or not. I don't want the government policing what is and isn't fair in a poker / NBA / etc game.
I think arresting people for cheating legitimizes backroom / mafia gambling. All the other rings (and those left from this one) can say "Look, those other guys got arrested. The law protects you. We don't want that to happen to us. Our game is definitely fair." Of course, they too are cheating.
The only reason the FBI cares here is probably because one of the victims had pull. If you or I get cheated, the FBI won't care about that.
> I don't want the government policing what is and isn't fair in a poker / NBA / etc game.
Operating a business that defrauds people is the domain of government enforcement.
I think you’re trying to reduce this to some sort of small scale friendly poker game between friends. It was not. It was an organized crime business operation that was systematically committing fraud.
Fraud is illegal and within scope of government enforcement.
The raison d'etre for the offense of fraud is to protect commerce.
The state / society needs to enforce a basic level of trust for Business A to buy widgets from Business B, and for Customer C to be employed, etc.
Betting on sports / poker / etc. is not part of that. Nobody is creating anything of value when you spin the roulette wheel. At best, the house wins and most players lose... and that is a harm to society. At worst, the house cheats or some subset of players cheat, and most players lose... and that too is a harm to society. (Edit: At worse worst, it leads to violence, extortion, etc...)
Gambling does not deserve the legitimacy of being policed.
> I think arresting people for cheating legitimizes backroom / mafia gambling. All the other rings (and those left from this one) can say "Look, those other guys got arrested. The law protects you."
Disagree, this case demonstrates the exact opposite -- you think your underground game is legit because there's celebrities playing? Think again, it's a far more sophisticated scam operation than you could imagine.
> The only reason the FBI cares here is probably because one of the victims had pull.
Again, I doubt it. Likely it's because the mafia is involved, and according to the indictment "the defendants and their co-conspirators used threats of force and violence to secure the repayment of debts from illegal poker games."
I think the comment goes more in the direction: “previously playing poker was a totally private thing, didn’t cost me a dime, now part of my taxes is used for that”
I'd appreciate it if the police could help stop cheating in my kids' soccer game as well. One of those brats keeps pretending to be injured! Lock him up.
you're right, they should outlaw gambling as a business because it's inherently predatory, rigged ("the house always wins" isn't just a cute phrase) and has addiction issues that disproportionately impact the poor
Except, correct me if this is wrong, but he wasn't even convicted of money laundering, let alone the underlying crimes you suggest he was launder the proceeds of. It was simply for failing to register / setup an appropriate AML system. Whether any ML occurred, by whom, and in relation to what... are outstanding questions. If he had done all that and all they got him on was a 4-month technicality, that tends to suggest he was probably innocent (or the investigation was inept).
I'm not sure you understand the point. It isn't that CZ himself was specifically putting forth the effort to launder money. It isn't that he was specifically doing things to try and make it easier. The point is that he had a legal duty to actively attempt to prevent money laundering. Binance was legally required to do this to operate in the US, and did not. The court case produced messages from the Chief Compliance Officer pointing out a myriad of ways in which they were not complying with various laws of this nature and they were ignored.
The BSA is not a technicality and trying to reframe it as one is wild. It is to make sure that people that have a financial incentive to turn a blind eye to money laundering don't turn a blind eye to it. You don't need to be directly involved in the money laundering to be incentivized to let it happen.
The guy was punished with a 4-month jail sentence. It's reasonable to assume his crime was of the sort that would result in a 3-6 month sentence... generally misdemeanors.
It's certainly in a different category than speeding or jaywalking, but it's a lot closer to that than to the 150 years that Bernie Madoff got.
